After monetization in 2016 and unprepared GST implementation in 2017, with the inevitable budget pressures caused by Modi Government, the “Make in India project” was already coming under severe internal pressure which was essentially caused by three completely contrary points of view.
Business in India due to coronavirus
The Modi Government’s attitude was that despite the removal of the small businessman who is a major benefactor’s contributions, the Make in India project should continue as business as usual and even expand into new projects.
Meanwhile, the small and Middle-class businessman makes a strong stand that their individual grants and payments, of whatever nature, should be wholly protected by the government in this lockdown.
However the Indian taxpayers who actually suffer in lockdown, make clear that their jobs will not be secure after lockdown but the last thing they wish to support the lockdown, no matter how improbable the future.
Along comes the horrific Coronavirus, Covid-19 to which no human as yet was immediately immune.
Here was a time when the Modi government should have come to the fore, defining a common form of defense for all of its Indians, and providing family protection guaranteed funds of equal measure. This would allow every Indian to be assured of the financial support they needed to defend against the virus and protect his family.
Lockdown in India
The Modi government closed all India and left their small and Middle-class businessman to go their own way in lockdown. Needles to say, the state also became protective of their own situation and closed their borders to all but their own citizens.
Every state within India and possibly throughout the world has spent every penny they could afford in protection against the virus.
Businesses have been closed and lost wages compensated for, in many instances. As a result, there can be no doubt that a worldwide recession will follow in the wake of the virus.
Business in India after Lockdown
However that particular cloud does have a silver line, in that unlike the last recession, it isn’t the financial structures that are damaged,
but merely the lack of demand which will in many instances come back with a boost.
But for India, PM Modi have been proven to be a unanimous leader. Nationalism will have saved the day and even if the 1% of GDP is maintained,
it will take some time for that percentage to recover to its present value in actual hard cash, so the Make in India future plans will inevitably be slashed for lack of funds.
Furthermore the Indian trading link in business has now, by default been shattered.
All businesses will recover at their own rate as demand filters back but after some years. To lose access to the single market is no longer a threat but it takes a few months.
Many companies and industries like the auto industry, desperate to sell their goods will do deals with China and other nation for trade, despite the government dictates.
The purpose and the benefit of the “Make in India will be gone and soon after it no doubts the future of the Make in India will fall into question.
So in conclusion, I believe that it is inevitable that after this pandemic the “Make in India” Project will never regain its previous status, thereafter, fast or slow, it will decay until merely becoming a footnote in history.